As the 2024 presidential campaign approaches its final days, polling expert Frank Luntz has expressed skepticism about the ability of polls to accurately predict the election outcome. He explained to CNN that opinion polls are so closely matched that they fail to provide a clear insight into voter intentions. Additionally, Luntz pointed out that those voters who remain undecided at this point are unlikely to cast their votes for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
Luntz elaborated that he is no longer heavily focused on polling data, as he believes most minds are made up. According to him, undecided voters tend to reject both major candidates, showing discontent with both options. Instead, Luntz is now concentrating on voter turnout, particularly paying attention to the mobilization of young women. He mentioned that if young women comprise a larger portion of the electorate, it could significantly benefit Harris, whose campaign has emphasized abortion rights and women’s health.
Furthermore, Luntz is closely monitoring Latino voters, who are participating in substantial numbers in the pivotal states of Arizona and Nevada, which may prove decisive. Recent early voting data shows an increase in Democratic women voters in Pennsylvania who abstained in 2020 but are now voting. Conversely, in Arizona, a significant number of Republican men are casting early ballots.
Another variable in the election is Trump’s recent rally at Madison Square Garden, which might have shifted momentum towards Harris. The event included a controversial moment when comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made derogatory remarks about Puerto Rico, sparking backlash among Latino communities.
Luntz also emphasized the limits of polling reliability, noting that past elections in 2016 and 2020 often underestimated Trump’s support. He dismissed the idea of a “shy Trump voter” in 2024, asserting that Trump supporters are now vocal and willing to share their voting preferences. However, a central question remains whether pollsters are overcorrecting to account for concealed Trump voters, potentially skewing the data, as Luntz suggested.
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