In anticipation of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Iran’s leadership and its allies are preparing for a potential scenario they consider unfavorable: the return of Donald Trump to the presidency. Current opinion polls indicate a close race between the Republican Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. This prospect is causing concern among Iranian leaders and their regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, who fear that a Trump victory on November 5 could exacerbate challenges for them.
Iran’s primary worry is the possibility that Trump might enable Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to target Iran’s nuclear sites, carry out targeted assassinations, and revive his “maximum pressure policy” with stringent sanctions on Iran’s oil industry. Iranian, Arab, and Western officials suggest that Trump, who previously served as U.S. President from 2017 to 2021, might exert significant pressure on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to accept a nuclear containment deal dictated by the U.S. and Israel.
A change in U.S. leadership could have considerable consequences for the balance of power in the Middle East and may require Iran to alter its foreign policy and economic strategies. Analysts argue that regardless of whether the next U.S. administration is led by Harris or Trump, Iran’s leverage has waned, mainly due to Israel’s ongoing military campaign to weaken the Islamic Republic’s armed proxies, including groups like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, Trump’s position is viewed as more detrimental to Iran because of his stronger alignment with Israel.
Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Center think-tank, stated that Trump would either impose stringent conditions on Iran or allow Israel to carry out targeted attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, expressing full support for military actions against the country. He remarked that Netanyahu would welcome Trump’s return to the White House.
Amid these concerns, a senior Iranian official speaking to Reuters, on condition of anonymity, mentioned that Tehran is prepared for all eventualities and has historically found ways to bypass U.S. sanctions and maintain global relations. Nonetheless, another Iranian official described the possibility of Trump’s return as a “nightmare,” suggesting that increased sanctions could economically immobilize the nation.
During a campaign speech in October, Trump expressed a reluctance to engage in war with Iran, yet he suggested that Israel should preemptively strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Following Iran’s missile attack on Israel on October 1, Israel responded with airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites. Analysts highlight the limited choices available to Iran moving forward.
Hassan Hassan, an expert on Islamic groups, noted that Trump’s possible return to power would empower Netanyahu further and complicate Iran’s position. He emphasized that the U.S. has increasingly supported Israel’s actions against Iran and its allies, thereby exacerbating the situation for Iran.
During her campaign, Harris labeled Iran as a “dangerous” and “destabilizing” force in the Middle East, underscoring the U.S. commitment to Israel’s security and alignment with allies against Iran’s actions. Conversely, regional officials view a Trump victory as a “poisoned chalice” for Khamenei, potentially compelling him to agree to a nuclear deal favorable to the U.S. and Israel to preserve theocratic governance amidst mounting foreign and domestic pressures.
Additionally, a potential U.S.-Saudi defense pact tied to Saudi Arabia’s establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel poses a substantial challenge to Iran’s strategic position, threatening to solidify an opposition front in the region.
Recent attacks on Iran and its allies, perceived as strategic successes for Israel, provide insights into how a limited strike on Iran might unfold without necessarily escalating into a broader conflict. A senior Arab security official remarked that Iran’s capability to project influence through armed proxies has diminished under these circumstances.
Iran remains wary of another Trump administration due to his 2018 withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and his actions which have caused economic strain, including sanctions impacting oil exports and financial transactions. Trump claimed that President Joe Biden’s lenient enforcement of sanctions has emboldened Iran, allowing it to advance its nuclear ambitions and regional influence.
While Trump has acknowledged the lack of alternatives to a new nuclear deal with Iran, given its progressed uranium enrichment efforts, some speculate that he might pursue a new agreement, presenting it as an achievement beneficial to U.S. interests.
Over time, the integrity of the 2015 agreement has eroded, with Iran progressively increasing the fissile purity of enriched uranium. Currently, Iran is enriching uranium to higher levels, approaching weapons-grade capacity within weeks, granting it a potential nuclear deterrent.
Officials warn that as Iran hints at nearing nuclear weapon capability, this provokes the likelihood of Israeli military responses. A Western official noted that if Trump regains power, he would likely back Israeli initiatives to strike Iranian nuclear sites.
