As Election Day approaches, the time remaining can now be counted in hours, urging undecided voters to make their final choice. Polling expert Frank Luntz has indicated that Americans who remain undecided this late stage are unlikely to vote for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris and may even abstain from voting. However, he believes there are still uncommitted voters whose decisions could be pivotal. Recent data suggest that these voters are reluctantly choosing between two candidates they do not favor.
A recently published New York Times/Siena College poll reveals tight contests in the seven key battleground states. Among those who made their decision in recent days, Harris holds a 58% to 42% advantage. Nevertheless, there are regional variations that could alter the expected Electoral College outcomes, complicating predictions about which states will cast the decisive votes.
According to the Times, Harris leads among late-deciding voters in the Sun Belt with a margin of 66% to 34%, while Trump leads in the North by 60% to 40%. This suggests that the Democrats’ traditional strategy focusing on Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin could be jeopardized, while Harris may have alternative paths to victory in parts of the South and West.
The Times poll shows Harris leading by three points in Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, and by one point in Georgia. Trump holds a four-point lead in Arizona and leads by one point in Michigan. The two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania. The results across all seven states fall within the margin of error.
Separately, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. indicates that Harris is leading Trump by 47% to 44%, marking a significant change from September. This result surprised election analysts on Saturday, suggesting that a traditionally Republican state could become competitive and that Harris might have increased support in other Midwestern regions.
The same poll in 2020 tempered Democratic expectations of a landslide in the Midwest, as it suggested smaller leads for Joe Biden, who narrowly defeated Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
In other developments, prediction markets have fluctuated over the past week, initially favoring Trump, then showing a tie or a slight edge for Harris. Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, communicated to Fortune that Trump is experiencing a historic decline in the final days of the campaign, which might lead to a Harris victory.
The shift in momentum occurred late last month during a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden, when comedian Tony Hinchcliffe sparked controversy by making offensive remarks about Puerto Rico, resulting in widespread criticism.
