Electric vehicle leader Tesla is set to report its third-quarter unit sales on Monday, but investors are bracing for some chaos. Wall Street estimates for Tesla’s unit sales have been all over the place, with the range of estimates wider than normal. The lowest estimate is 438,000 units while the highest is 511,000, highlighting a 73,000 unit difference. However, the company-compiled consensus estimate is about 455,000 units. This quarter’s estimates have deviated from early-quarter projections by about 3%. Despite the uncertainty, Tesla’s third-quarter results are expected to be down a little, flat, or up a little compared to the second quarter due to planned plant downtime for facility upgrades as the company prepares to deliver a refreshed Model 3 in Europe and China.
Investors have concerns about a low delivery number as it would raise questions about electric vehicle (EV) demand in the face of rising interest rates and increasing competition in the EV market. They will also pay attention to production figures, hoping to see production and sales more closely align. Historically, when Tesla’s delivery numbers beat expectations, its stock tends to go up between the delivery report and the earnings report. However, Tesla’s stock has been on the decline since the earnings report, partly due to market factors, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite down about 6% and 8% respectively.
Tesla’s quarterly delivery number is just one of the many factors that matter to investors, but it can generate significant trading volatility. Therefore, some volatility is expected when the delivery numbers are announced on Monday.
