For the first time in the 2024 election cycle, Vice President Kamala Harris is perceived as more likely to win the U.S. presidential election than former President Donald Trump, according to a CNBC Fed Survey released Tuesday.
The survey, conducted from September 12 to 14, polled 27 respondents, including investment strategists, economists, and fund managers. Among them, 48% believe Harris will secure a victory, while 41% forecast a win for Trump. This survey was taken just days after the first, and potentially only, debate between Harris and Trump.
This marks a change from the previous CNBC Fed Survey in late July, which showed 50% predicting a Trump victory and only 37% envisaging a Harris presidency. That July survey followed President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race and his endorsement of Harris.
Prior to Biden’s exit, a survey indicated that 48% viewed Trump as the likely winner, 35% supported Biden’s re-election, and 17% were uncertain. Since Harris entered the race unopposed in late July, her campaign has detailed her economic platform and policy proposals. With fewer than 50 days until the November 5 election, rising living costs remain a primary concern for voters.
Harris’s economic agenda emphasizes growing the middle class and reducing consumer costs through housing subsidies, expanded tax credits and deductions, and measures against corporate price gouging. In contrast, Trump advocates for extending and deepening his first-term tax cuts, implementing strict tariffs on all imports, and eliminating some of the Biden administration’s infrastructure investments.
The survey also revealed that 56% of respondents believe a Trump presidency would benefit the stock market more than a Harris administration. However, opinions on economic management are more divided, with 44% favoring Trump and 41% favoring Harris for overall economic handling.
Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics LLC, commented that Trump’s proposals, if implemented, could lead to increased inflation and economic slowdown, potentially causing a recession. Furthermore, the survey findings show that 52% of respondents think Harris would be better for the country overall, compared to 37% supporting Trump.
Respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey also anticipated that Harris’s economic policies would better address budget deficits and trade policy, while Trump’s proposals were rated higher for their potential impacts on business regulation, inflation, jobs, and taxes.
Regardless of the election outcome, the president’s policies will have only partial influence on the health of the U.S. economy. Some commentators, such as Robert Fry, chief economist at Robert Fry Economics LLC, suggest that a divided government could help mitigate the negative effects of the economic policies proposed by both candidates.
The presidential election ranked sixth out of eight concerning risks to the U.S. economy according to the survey’s respondents. The top-ranked risk was the Federal Reserve potentially cutting interest rates too late or insufficiently.
On the matter of Federal Reserve independence, 100% of respondents expect Harris to respect its autonomy, whereas only 42% believe Trump would do the same. Richard Bernstein, CEO of Bernstein Advisors, noted that while Fed independence is crucial, it ultimately depends on the constitutionally established branches of government.
The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020 in its upcoming Wednesday meeting.
