A recent phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin conveyed a notable implication regarding the United States’ long-term commitment to safeguarding Europe from Russia’s aggressive strategies. In the intervening period before their subsequent conversation, diplomatic activity in Europe intensified, prompting shifts in alliances and alterations to established protocols as Europe displayed an assertiveness not typically associated with it.
Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund remarked that the advent of the Trump administration has accelerated historical developments and focused attention on necessary actions. As the 27-member European Union prepares for its third summit in six weeks, efforts to strengthen its defenses are taking center stage.
Intense diplomatic engagements, initiated by Trump’s communication with Moscow concerning Ukraine, have resulted in complex relationships from Brussels to Paris and London. European Union discussions now frequently involve sub-groups of countries within and outside the EU, and aligned partners like Britain and Canada are included in dialogues. The NATO Secretary General has consistently participated, aiming to facilitate a connection with the new US administration.
These evolving dynamics highlight the challenges brought about by Viktor Orban of Hungary, who maintains friendships with Trump and Russia, hindering unanimous EU actions regarding Ukraine. For the second consecutive occasion, EU leaders anticipate reaching consensus in Brussels by issuing a 26-nation statement to navigate the “strategic divergence” caused by Orban’s stance on the conflict. This approach underscores the emergence of a “coalition of the willing” around Ukraine and complexities in enhancing Europe’s long-term defenses.
“The need for a Europe that prioritizes not just more serious but more autonomous defense practices is increasingly apparent,” Lesser noted, suggesting the inclusion of new actors such as Britain, Norway, and potentially Turkey in forming a stronger European presence within NATO.
One notable consequence of America’s apparent disengagement is Britain’s renewed approach towards Europe, despite challenges in rekindling post-Brexit ties. Although prior disagreements have resurfaced, and European leaders accuse Britain of selective engagement in its reset initiative, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been instrumental in European efforts to ensure continued US involvement, negotiate a potential Ukraine ceasefire, and solidify European security.
Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations emphasized that both Britain and the EU recognize their ability to unite over shared critical matters. While there may be disputes over the allocation of funds for rearmament within a new loan program, Britain could be invited to join provided a security agreement with the EU is reached.
The collaboration between Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron on Ukraine further supports efforts to enhance EU-UK security cooperation.
The potential withdrawal of US security protection has also prompted reconsideration of the EU’s rigid budget deficit rules. Brussels now advocates for suspending these rules for four years, potentially enabling defense spending totaling 650 billion euros. This proposal has found support even among countries previously opposed.
Germany, long averse to major expenditures, is considering a “bazooka” defense spending approach advocated by Friedrich Merz, its prospective leader, and may enter into discussions with France and Britain on a shared nuclear deterrent. Additionally, Poland’s Donald Tusk has shown interest in nuclear capabilities.
Recent developments have broken many long-standing taboos, according to Lesser, in areas ranging from deterrence to finance. However, Germany and the Netherlands remain resistant to large-scale EU joint borrowing like that implemented to address the Covid pandemic crisis.
EU diplomat Kaja Kallas noted that while this is not currently under consideration, it is not entirely ruled out.
