Polymarket has disclosed new details regarding a high-stakes gambler who has placed a $45 million wager on Donald Trump winning the upcoming election, yet numerous questions persist about the individual’s identity and motives.
According to a statement made to the New York Times DealBook, the prediction market platform identified the individual as a French national with “extensive trading experience and a background in financial services.” While further details about the person were not provided, the company noted that it had made contact with the individual, who agreed not to establish additional accounts without prior notification.
The individual operates through four accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—accumulating a total of $45 million in bets favoring a Trump victory via a series of smaller transactions, as reported by Bloomberg. This strategy of using multiple, smaller transactions is likely intended to prevent a rapid increase in the cost of betting on Trump’s electoral victory, ensuring more favorable betting odds.
Polymarket allows users to place bets on various outcomes, including the presidential election, using cryptocurrency. However, U.S. citizens have been prohibited from utilizing Polymarket since shortly after the company received a fine from the CFTC in 2022 for allegedly offering illegal options trading. Although a recent legal victory for rival prediction market Kalshi has paved the way for election betting, Polymarket has not yet reopened to American users and has been tightening restrictions on their participation.
Experts have noted that prediction markets are often viewed as more accurate election predictors due to the financial stakes involved. However, there are concerns that these bets could be utilized to influence the presidential election. Others remain skeptical about the significance of prediction markets, challenging the notion that increased wagers for Trump could affect his electoral odds.
Polymarket’s investigation into the French trader concluded that the individual is taking a position based on personal views regarding the election.
The primary focus of the trader’s activities is centered on several bets supporting Trump and opposing Vice President Kamala Harris. On one particular day, the account Theo4 made over 450 separate wagers against Kamala Harris winning the presidency, with individual bets ranging from under $5 to several thousands of dollars.
Further bets by the French national include predictions on a Republican victory in the general and presidential elections (affirmative bets), a Democratic loss in the Michigan Presidential election (negative bets), and Kamala Harris not winning the popular vote (negative bets).
The trader’s most dominant account, Fredi9999, holds $19 million in mostly political wagers on the platform, including a $13.8 million stake backing Trump to win the election.
Addressing the controversy surrounding the election bets and the French trader, Polymarket’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, reiterated in a statement on the social media platform X that the company remains non-partisan and transparent. He emphasized that Polymarket’s original vision was not intended to revolve around political betting.
“Polymarket is not about politics. The vision never was to be a political website, and it still isn’t,” Coplan stated.
