In a pivotal election taking place today, Germany is voting in an event likely to secure the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) its highest electoral result yet, a development poised to influence the future trajectory of Europe’s largest democracy amid significant geopolitical and economic pressures.
Recent polls have indicated that the pro-Russia, anti-immigration party, led in part by Alice Weidel, may garner support from about 20% of German voters, effectively doubling its performance from the federal elections in 2021. During the campaign trail, the AfD received notable endorsements from the Trump administration and Elon Musk, the owner of X and currently the world’s wealthiest individual.
A substantial gain for the AfD would signify a political shift to the right within the Eurozone’s largest economy, which has been grappling with elevated energy prices and heightened competition from affordable Chinese imports over the past two years.
Projections for the Bundestag seat allocations are scheduled to be announced at 6 PM local time once polling stations close their doors. The AfD’s campaign, characterized by xenophobia, found resonance with the public following three lethal attacks attributed to migrants. On a recent Friday, authorities reported the arrest of a Syrian refugee linked to a suspected knife attack at Berlin’s Holocaust memorial.
Germany’s other political parties have declined the possibility of a coalition with the AfD, maintaining a “firewall,” which was criticized by U.S. Vice-President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference recently. Nonetheless, a significant far-right presence in the Bundestag could present challenges to coalition-building for Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader, who is currently expected to succeed Olaf Scholz as chancellor.
Merz’s conservative CDU is predicted to emerge victorious in the election with approximately 30% of the vote, while Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is forecasted to face its most significant defeat since 1887, receiving only 15% of the votes.
The coalition formation might face further complexities if smaller parties like the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), the far-left Die Linke, and the newly established “leftwing conservative” party by Sahra Wagenknecht, surpass the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag.
The forthcoming German chancellor will take over not only an economy in stagnation but also a nation somewhat unsettled by former President Donald Trump’s harsh rhetoric towards Europe. Trump’s stance, which includes threats to withdraw security assurances from the continent and engaging with Russia regarding Ukraine’s fate, has indeed shaken transatlantic relations.
At a rally in Munich on Saturday, Merz expressed confidence, stating, “We will win the federal election and then this nightmare of the current government will finally be over.” He acknowledged the structural challenges faced by Germany but remained optimistic, proclaiming, “We are going to turn this half-full glass into a full glass again and we are going to show what this economy can achieve.”
