Japanese rice is a key component in many of the country’s iconic dishes, including sushi, onigiri, and yakitori don. However, Japan is currently experiencing its most significant rice shortfall in decades.
Recent months have seen Japan grappling with a rice shortage caused by a combination of adverse weather conditions and an increase in tourism, compounded by the country’s restrictive rice policies. According to a report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Japan faced a table rice shortage throughout the summer of 2024, with demand outstripping production for the past three years, leading to stock depletion to their lowest levels in over 20 years. Additionally, consumers have been stockpiling rice in anticipation of typhoon season and a major earthquake warning.
In August, reports emerged that supermarkets often ran out of white rice, leading stores to limit purchases to one bag per person. Local media NHK attributed part of the shortage to a surge in tourists, which increased the demand for sushi and other rice-based dishes. Rice prices reached 16,133 yen ($112.67) per 60kg in August, marking a 3% increase from the previous month and a 5% rise since the beginning of the year.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries indicated that Japan’s private rice inventories stood at 1.56 million tons in June, the lowest in years. In addition to natural disaster preparations, the Ministry also cited an influx of tourists driving up demand in the food service sector.
Joseph Glauber from the International Food Policy Research Institute noted that the Japan rice economy remains largely isolated from the world market. Oscar Tjakra, a senior analyst at Rabobank, estimated that rice consumption by tourists increased from 19,000 tons between July 2022 and June 2023 to 51,000 tons from July 2023 through June 2024. Despite the significant increase, this tourist consumption still constitutes a small fraction of Japan’s annual domestic rice consumption of over 7 million tons.
Japan reported a record 17.8 million visitors in the first half of the year, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. This upward trend persisted with 3.3 million inbound tourists in July, the highest recorded according to Japan’s tourism statistics.
Tjakra also highlighted that rice production in Japan has been declining as aging rice farmers retire and fewer young individuals enter the profession. Moreover, harvests were affected by a series of heatwaves and drought in the latter half of last year.
While smaller rice harvests and increased demand from tourists are factors, Glauber pointed out that Japan’s rice policies are the main contributors to the overall supply decline. Japan imposes a 778% tariff on imported rice to protect its rice farmers and is committed to importing around 682,000 tons annually under World Trade Organization obligations. However, this imported rice is largely used for processing and feed, remaining isolated from Japanese consumers.
Japan’s rice exports have increased sixfold from 2014 to 2022, reaching nearly 30,000 tons, according to Tjakra. Higher rice prices contributed to Japan’s headline inflation in August, which rose 2.8% year-on-year, driven by increased energy and food costs. Rice and chocolate prices were among the largest drivers in the food basket.
