Decisions related to childbearing are highly personal, yet the growing reluctance to have children is presenting societal challenges. The crude birth rate in the United States has decreased significantly, more than halving since the 1960s. According to data from the St. Louis Fed, approximately 24 babies were born per 1,000 people six decades ago, while in 2022, the figure was 11.
This decline, coupled with increased life expectancy, raises concerns among economists about the potential impact on economic structures that rely on workforce availability. Melinda Mills, a professor of demography and population health at Oxford University, notes that “sustained low fertility, paired with longer life expectancy, results in aging populations.” This trend imposes strains on labor markets, particularly in areas such as healthcare for older populations, the need to rethink housing and infrastructure, and the re-evaluation of pension systems and retirement age.
James Pomeroy, a global economist at HSBC, suggests that the aging population could lead to a 4% reduction in GDP. Despite earlier expectations of a post-COVID “baby bump,” data from 2022 and 2023 reflects a return to pre-pandemic trends, with couples increasingly opting for a dual-income-no-kids (DINK) lifestyle. The CDC reported a historic low in U.S. fertility rates in 2023, with approximately 55 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44.
Pomeroy warns that in a low-fertility scenario, the traditional working-age population could diminish within two decades. Meanwhile, Mills highlights the immediate tension between declining birth rates and an aging population, as evidenced by healthcare labor shortages in countries like the U.K., where migrants have largely filled these roles.
As people increasingly choose not to have children, personal freedoms such as career flexibility are valued. This sentiment is shared by Heather Maclean and Scott Kyrish, whose decision to remain child-free allowed them to pursue a dynamic balance in their careers. Maclean expressed that such a choice afforded her the opportunity to explore new ventures, like writing a book, without financial hesitation.
The broader societal implications of fewer births extend into various sectors, affecting everyday services and economic outputs. As this trend continues, discussions about sustainability in labor forces and pension systems are expected to persist.
This article first appeared on Fortune.com on November 19, 2024.
