With only a few days remaining before the final votes are cast in the 2024 presidential election, a widely regarded poll has revealed a surprising change in voter sentiment within a Midwestern state.
The latest Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. and commissioned by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom, indicates that Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by 47% to 44% among likely voters. This marks a reversal from September, when Trump held a 4-point advantage over Harris. In June, the poll showed Trump leading Joe Biden by 18 points, who was still a contender at that time.
J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., expressed that the shift was unexpected, noting Harris’s significant rise in the polls. Selzer attributed Harris’s lead to an increase in support from voters over 65 years old and from independent voters, particularly women.
Iowa, traditionally not seen as a swing state in 2024 due to its trend towards more Republican support since voting for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008, now finds itself under scrutiny. Political analysts suggest that Iowa’s current abortion law, which prohibits the procedure after approximately six weeks of pregnancy with limited exceptions, and Harris’s focus on abortion rights in her campaign, may be influencing voter decisions.
Recent trends in prediction markets indicate an increased favorability towards Harris. A top data scientist noted that Trump has lost his substantial lead.
Selzer’s Iowa Poll, known for its reliability, may have broader implications for other Midwestern states crucial to the election outcome. In 2020, Selzer’s final poll accurately predicted that Trump and other Republicans held substantial leads in Iowa, despite other surveys indicating a closer race. This served as a caution that other regional states may not support Biden as strongly as previously thought. Four years ago, the pivotal “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were won by Biden with narrow margins.
Currently, these states remain closely contested, with some data showing Trump in the lead. However, the unexpected results from Iowa suggest potential increased support for Harris in the Midwest.
Despite its findings, the Iowa poll has been met with some skepticism. Polling expert Nate Silver remarked that Selzer’s poll “probably” errs, although he rates her as one of his top two pollsters. Silver noted her near-oracular status in a field where many pollsters have faced scrutiny.
