Vice President Kamala Harris’s recent decline in presidential polls may be attributed to a strategic shift that could threaten her election prospects, according to prominent pollster Frank Luntz.
In a recent interview with CNN, Luntz highlighted that Harris experienced a surge in poll standings when she emphasized her own qualifications for the presidency. He noted, “She had the best 60 days of any presidential candidate in modern history.” However, he suggested that her momentum stalled once she shifted focus, adopting an anti-Trump narrative by urging voters to oppose him rather than support her.
Recent polling data from two major sources indicate that Donald Trump has gained a slight advantage over Harris as Election Day approaches. According to a Wall Street Journal poll, Trump now holds a 2% lead over Harris, reversing the 2% lead Harris held in August. Similarly, a poll conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business shows Trump with an edge, with 44% of voters trusting him on economic issues compared to 43% for Harris.
Additionally, a new poll by the New York Times and Siena College reveals a 48%-48% tie, with Trump closing Harris’s previous 2% lead. A CNN poll reflects a similar deadlock at 47% each, following Harris’s earlier 1% lead.
Frank Luntz cautions that the shift in Harris’s campaign strategy could jeopardize her chances, as voters seek more detailed information about her. He remarked, “Donald Trump is defined. He’s not gaining, he’s not losing. He is who he is, and his vote is where it is. She is less well defined, and if she continues just to define this race as ‘vote against Trump,’ she’s going to stay where she is now and she may lose.”
Initially, Harris’s campaign emphasized “joy” and optimism, but it has since intensified its criticism of Trump, issuing warnings about his potential threat to American democracy, a significant theme in President Joe Biden’s campaign before he withdrew. Despite accusations from former Trump administration officials labeling Trump as a fascist, which his campaign denies, Harris has also joined in this criticism.
According to 538’s polling analysis as of Friday, Trump holds a 53-in-100 chance of election victory, while Harris has a 47-in-100 chance. This marks a change from three weeks prior when Harris led with a 58-in-100 chance.
Luntz refrains from making election predictions, emphasizing to NewsNation that uncommitted voters will likely determine the outcome. He commented, “I think at this moment, in terms of committed, Trump has the advantage. In terms of the ceiling of potential vote, Harris has the advantage, which is why I stay away from any projections. I don’t know.”
