In the upcoming fortnight, Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, will visit a location in the Welsh valleys to initiate efforts to challenge the Labour Party’s long-standing influence in Welsh politics. Labour has dominated the Senedd parliament in Cardiff for 25 years, and has been Wales’s primary party since 1922.
However, its control may decline in the legislative elections next May due to emerging competition from Plaid Cymru on the left and Reform on the right. A YouGov poll in May indicated Labour holding only 18 percent of the vote, with Reform at 25 percent and Plaid at 30 percent, suggesting Plaid might secure a mandate to lead the next government.
Support for Labour under Sir Keir Starmer has decreased, with some policies being particularly unpopular, including cuts to winter fuel payments and disability benefits, and increased inheritance tax on farmland. The prime minister has since reversed the winter fuel subsidy decision, and officials are reconsidering welfare reforms. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to propose infrastructure investments in Wales during the spending review on June 11. Nevertheless, some in Welsh Labour view the path forward as challenging.
David Rees, a Labour Senedd member for Aberavon, cited difficulties with Westminster decisions, highlighting dissatisfaction among voters who feel change has not been delivered and that detrimental decisions have been made.
Reform UK, benefiting from waning Conservative support, is uncertain whether its shift to the left will attract traditional Labour supporters or enough new voters to impact Labour and Plaid Cymru.
Projections by YouGov suggest Plaid could win 35 seats and Reform 30, leaving Labour with 19, potentially resulting in no single party securing a majority. Rhun ap Iorwerth, Plaid’s leader, criticized Starmer’s approach, stating that Welsh Labour’s assumption of perpetual voter backing contributed to their difficulties. He dismissed the possibility of forming a government with Reform and indicated that a coalition with Labour is not guaranteed, even if Plaid wins the most seats.
The Senedd election, required by May 7, 2026, will employ a “closed proportional list” system for the first time, impacting the allocation of seats in the expanded chamber from 60 to 96 members, likely benefiting smaller parties.
Since replacing Vaughan Gething, Wales’ First Minister Baroness Eluned Morgan has attempted to differentiate Welsh Labour from UK Labour. In a speech before Starmer’s policy reversal, Morgan urged a rethink on the winter fuel allowance discontinuation, promoting the “red Welsh way” to distinguish from UK Labour’s direction.
This separation has become challenging since Labour entered Downing Street last year after a decade of Conservative governance. Cardiff University professor Richard Wyn Jones noted that Labour’s previous defense regarding the funding of devolved services is no longer sustainable.
In Llanelli, a previously close contest for Reform, discontent with Labour and Starmer is evident. Retiree Michael Clement plans to switch to Plaid, criticizing Labour’s treatment of pensioners and the disabled. Others, including Gareth Beer, a Reform candidate, highlight economic stagnation and deficient public services as reasons for the shift towards Reform. Beer noted the lack of hostility towards Reform now, as some view it as a promising alternative.
Academic Jac Larner’s analysis indicates Reform’s support largely arises from former Conservative voters and those new to voting, rather than Labour’s previous electorate.
Rees believes Labour can recover its position if it effectively confronts Westminster on key issues and secures victories for local communities. However, he acknowledges the time-consuming nature of governing, emphasizing the necessity of gradual progress and recapturing fringe supporters from Reform.
