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The Catholic Church’s Future Battle Won’t Center on Doctrine

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The writer, a biographer of Pope Francis and co-author of "Let Us Dream: the Path to a Better Future" with him, reflects on the cardinals as they mourn and bury Pope Francis. During this period, they will discreetly consider who might succeed him.

There is heightened anticipation regarding the election of the 266th successor of St. Peter, a task the cardinals believe requires discerning God’s choice, assisted by the Holy Spirit. They must evaluate the state of the world and the Church, listen carefully to each other, and remain open-minded. Starting Monday until they convene in conclave in early May, discussions will take place daily in the synod hall and during informal evening gatherings.

Just as in property buying, creating a list of ideal qualities differs from assessing the available candidates. No single cardinal fulfills every expectation; hence, choices reflect varying priorities. The typical portrayal of a battle between “progressives” and “conservatives” is not the most useful framework for understanding these differences.

Historically, European cardinals primarily decided papal elections. However, the Catholic Church is now a universal, multi-polar institution with cardinals from 94 countries, reflecting Pope Francis’s effort to diversify his nominations. Europe still holds substantial influence with 53 electors, but its congregations are shrinking. Most Catholics are in the Americas, with 37 electors, while the fastest growth is seen in Asia and Africa, with 23 and 18 electors, respectively.

As the Western Church manages a substantial legacy of properties, the Southern Churches face resource shortages to accommodate growing congregations. Cultural differences increasingly influence discussions on ethical matters, yet these differences focus more on the application of doctrine than on the doctrine itself.

The distinctions among cardinals are better understood in terms of how the Church evangelizes, seeking to reflect “God’s Kingdom.” This involves the Church’s style—its culture and mindset. Differing views have emerged in response to Pope Francis’s era and reforms, which aimed to adapt to the “change of era” marked by Christianity’s declining societal presence.

Francis opposed the “negative view” of the Church’s diminished social relevance, advocating instead for a “discerning view.” This perspective sees the shifts as opportunities for transformation and better alignment with “God’s style.” Francis envisioned a “Christianity of witness,” characterized by mercy, joy, humility, and service, fostering a more fraternal world.

His approach to the papacy was a masterclass in “God’s style,” marked by captivating evangelism, humility, and engagement with diverse perspectives. His impact is evident in the large numbers gathered in Rome, yet this style has made some Church leaders uncomfortable, particularly in regions where culture-war Catholicism is prevalent. Critics accuse Francis of compromising doctrinal clarity and emphasize an institution focused on moral teaching and power alliances.

However, as societal contexts evolve, the Church’s future may lie in a return to early Christianity’s witness from below, aligning with seekers and the wounded. The upcoming conclave will focus not on doctrine, but on embracing the conversion embodied by Pope Francis.

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