The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that the December CPI, excluding food and energy, remained unchanged at +0.3%, providing some relief as the revisions weren’t higher like last year. The November figure came in at +0.2%, surpassing expectations of +0.1%, while the October CPI rose by +0.1% from being unchanged. The Q4 core CPI was also unrevised at a 3.3% annualized increase. Notably, the core six-month annualized CPI dropped to 3.0% from 3.3%, which is a key metric closely monitored by the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, emphasized the importance of these changes, stating that the scheduled revisions to CPI inflation due next month are significant for policy decisions. The annual update to the seasonal factors could potentially change the inflation picture in 2023. The January CPI report is expected to be released next Thursday, with current estimates forecasting a drop in the year-on-year reading to 2.9% from 3.4%, attributed in large part to the +0.5% month-on-month reading from January 2023 rolling off.
The pre-revision year-on-year and month-on-month CPI charts depict the trends in US consumer prices, providing a visual representation of the data. The figures underline the importance of accurate data in shaping monetary policy decisions and underscore the significance of upcoming CPI revisions in shaping the inflation outlook for 2023. These changes in CPI data will be closely watched by economists and policymakers to gauge the trajectory of inflation and make informed policy decisions.
