The EUR/USD pair has reached a two-month low, indicating a potential sixth consecutive week of losses. The drop below the important 200-day SMA suggests a further decline may be imminent. Additionally, the RSI is on the verge of entering oversold territory, urging caution for bearish traders. The focus remains on the speeches of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde.
The EUR/USD pair is currently facing selling pressure and has dropped to its lowest level since June 14. It is down 0.25% for the day and is likely to end the week with losses for the sixth consecutive week. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have boosted the US Dollar to a two-month high, while the speculation of the ECB halting its rate hikes in September has undermined the Euro.
Technically, the pair’s downward momentum has pulled spot prices below the significant 200-day SMA for the first time since November 2022. This development is seen as a trigger for bearish traders and supports the continuation of the descending trend that began in July. However, caution is advised as the RSI is close to entering oversold territory, and the upcoming speeches by Powell and Lagarde at the Jackson Hole Symposium may influence market sentiment. Nevertheless, the overall fundamental backdrop suggests a downward trajectory for the EUR/USD pair.
In terms of technical levels, a convincing break and acceptance below the 200-day SMA strengthen the negative outlook. This could lead to a further decline towards the next support level at the 1.0750-1.0745 range, with potential further downside to the 1.0700 and 1.0635 regions. Conversely, any intraday recovery above the 1.0800 mark may be seen as an opportunity for selling, with resistance expected at the 1.0840 and 1.0870-1.0875 levels. Breaking these resistance zones could alter the bearish outlook, potentially pushing the pair towards the 1.0900 and 1.0915-1.0920 resistance levels.