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Georgia’s opposition has urged protests following its rejection of preliminary election results that indicate a win for the ruling party. This election is widely perceived as a crucial decision between aligning with Europe or Russia. The Central Election Commission reported that, with 99 percent of precincts counted, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party, led by pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, secured 54.2 percent of the votes early on Sunday.
The primary opposition groups, the four-party Coalition for Change and the United National Movement (UNM), founded by the incarcerated former president Mikheil Saakashvili, garnered 10.8 percent and 10.1 percent of the vote, respectively, and have subsequently called for protests on Sunday.
If Georgian Dream’s majority in the 150-seat parliament is confirmed, analysts suggest this could potentially halt Georgia’s aspirations for EU membership and deliver a significant defeat to the opposition and civil society, considering GD has been in power for 12 years. Nika Gvaramia, one of the opposition coalition leaders, accused the ruling party of election fraud, labeling it a coup and promising accountability for GD’s actions.
UNM Chair Tina Bokuchava also dismissed the results, asserting that they will not compromise their European future or accept the announced election results. Despite the ballots still being counted on Sunday, GD Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze declared the election outcome a “landslide victory.”
Bidzina Ivanishvili, speaking in front of GD’s headquarters, remarked that it is rare globally for the same party to maintain success under challenging conditions. Observers noted numerous voting irregularities, including pre-marked ballots, expulsion of observers, and violations of voting secrecy. “My Vote,” a domestic electoral observation group, described these as part of an effort to undermine the vote’s integrity. Accusations were made of GD pressuring state workers for votes through implicit threats.
Unidentified individuals, suspected to be from special services, allegedly attacked opposition party headquarters and an opposition TV crew. These groups were observed outside several polling stations in Tbilisi on Sunday.
In Tbilisi, GD reportedly secured around 38-40 percent of votes, while in smaller communities like Bolnisi and Marneuli, they gained 80 percent of the votes, according to preliminary results from the election commission. Exit polls depicted divergent results, with some conducted by Edison and HarrisX for opposition-leaning stations showing GD receiving between 40.9 and 42 percent, while a pro-government station reported 56 percent.
The elections are considered a turning point for Georgia’s trajectory, with approximately 80 percent of the population favoring EU accession, especially after Georgia obtained EU candidate status in December 2023. Although GD officially supports European integration, its anti-EU rhetoric intensified following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Tbilisi did not impose sanctions on Moscow and barred several Russian opposition politicians from entering the country.
GD presented the elections as a choice between war and peace, portraying itself as an entity capable of balancing relations between the West and the Kremlin. This situation in Georgia draws parallels with Moldova, where voters recently opted for EU accession by a narrow margin. GD’s campaign included an aggressive depiction of its peace message, with posters contrasting scenes of devastation in Ukraine with untouched images of Georgia.