Roula Khalaf, the Editor of the Financial Times, curates her preferred stories in a weekly newsletter known as the Editor’s Digest. The writer of this article is noted as the author of ‘Command’ and the Substack ‘Comment is Freed’.
The article begins by referencing an anecdote about a frog and a scorpion on the River Jordan, used to illustrate the complex dynamics often associated with the Middle East.
A year has elapsed since Hamas initiated the current cycle of conflict. Israel’s focus has expanded from Gaza to Lebanon, dealing a significant blow last week by assassinating Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbollah. Nasrallah rose to prominence in 2006 when his Iran-backed group fought Israel to a stalemate, elevating his status among Arab communities and solidifying his influence in Lebanese politics.
Nasrallah found himself entangled in the tension between his responsibilities to Iran and Lebanon. Many held him accountable for Lebanon’s ongoing economic challenges and political instability, as Hizbollah’s alignment with the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” took precedence.
Following the events of October 7, Hizbollah, remaining part of this axis, opened a second front as Israel invaded Gaza. Hizbollah’s actions were measured, indicating support for Hamas without provoking a larger conflict. Consequently, Israel was able to focus on Hamas, postponing further engagements with Hizbollah.
As a result, Hizbollah missed an opportunity to amplify its military impact at a critical moment for Israel, inadvertently setting up a future confrontation. This escalation in conflict was marked by Israel dismantling much of Hizbollah’s command structure, culminating in Nasrallah’s assassination. Israel has since launched what it describes as a limited ground operation in southern Lebanon to dismantle Hizbollah’s military infrastructure.
Iran faces a dilemma as Israel strikes its proxies while it remains passive. In response to previous provocations, such as an attack on its embassy in Damascus, Iran launched drones and missiles toward Israel; however, most were unsuccessful. Despite other hostilities, including the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran has chosen not to further escalate.
Hizbollah’s role as part of Iran’s deterrent is being eroded by Israel’s actions. The recent assassination of Nasrallah has intensified the situation. Iran’s newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, aims for continued restraint due to the nation’s dire economic conditions and public dissatisfaction. However, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seek a stronger response. Consequently, Iran launched a barrage of missiles toward Israel, with most being intercepted by air defenses, though some reached their targets.
In response, discussions in Israel revolve around potential retaliatory actions that might disrupt the entire Iranian axis, raising speculation on target choices. While military installations might be a focus, there is a concern about reactions if nuclear facilities are involved. U.S. President Joe Biden has advised against targeting nuclear sites, though he acknowledged the possibility of strikes on oil infrastructure. Such actions could provoke Iran into targeting Israel’s energy facilities and potentially causing an international oil crisis by closing the Straits of Hormuz.
Israel is not positioned to instigate regime change in Tehran; any such outcome would depend on internal Iranian developments. Despite demonstrating military prowess and weakening regional adversaries, Iran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities, and Israel’s air defense resources, such as the Arrow system, are limited.
The Lebanese caretaker government, dealing with a humanitarian crisis, seeks an end to the hostilities, though Hizbollah continues rocket attacks, causing casualties among Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, a ceasefire and hostage negotiation in Gaza remain elusive.
Amidst the power dynamics in Tehran, a comprehensive strategic reevaluation is unlikely. For Israel, as long as military targets exist, it may continue its operations. The challenge lies in leveraging military success to achieve political gains and establish enduring stability along its borders. While potential solutions exist, the complexities of the Middle East complicate their realization.
