The first significant energy transition can be traced back to the 18th century, when society started shifting from wood to coal. As of 2024, there is considerable interest in assessing the progress made in the ongoing shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources and the work that remains unfinished.
In recent years, notable advances have been observed in various facets of the energy transition. Innovation has rendered numerous new technologies more viable. For instance, around 90% of all battery electric vehicle sales and 60% of all solar and wind capacity additions occurred within the last five years. If this growth rate is sustained, these sectors could likely contribute effectively to the projected energy transition goals set for 2050.
Nevertheless, despite the positive momentum, the transition is still in its nascent stages. According to research, global electrification is progressing, albeit slowly. From 2005 to 2022, the share of electricity in total final energy consumption increased by less than five percentage points, rising from approximately 16% to 20%, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Furthermore, when examining different domains, such as power generation and building heating, research indicates that only about 10% of the required low-emission technologies for meeting global commitments by 2050 have been deployed so far. In specific areas like low-emissions hydrogen production and point-source carbon capture, only about 1% of the transition needs have been met.
The primary challenge now is to determine how to accomplish the remaining 90% of the necessary transition.
The existing energy system, characterized by its vastness and complexity, presents significant challenges for the energy transition. The world boasts over 60,000 power plants delivering electricity to more than six billion people. The global oil and gas pipeline network stretches about two million kilometers, roughly equivalent to traveling from Earth to the Moon and back twice. The system produces approximately seven billion tonnes of industrial materials annually and delivers high-performance energy that is dense, transportable, and capable of high heat output.
However, this system is critically flawed due to its high emissions, contributing approximately 85% of global carbon dioxide emissions. The energy transition fundamentally entails a physical transformation, necessitating the development and deployment of new low-emission technologies, as well as the infrastructure and supply chains to support their operation. A structured blueprint for this transformation is essential.
Research has identified 25 physical challenges across seven domains that need addressing to achieve the 90% of the transition that remains. About half of global CO2 emissions hinge on overcoming the 12 most demanding challenges, referred to as the “demanding dozen.” These include managing power systems with a high share of variable renewables, addressing range and payload issues in electric trucks, finding alternative heat sources for industrial material production, and deploying hydrogen and carbon capture technologies across various applications.
For example, current battery electric trucks cannot match the range of diesel trucks without recharging. Estimates indicate that even the best heavy-duty battery electric trucks today may fall short of meeting 20% to 45% of long-haul trucking requirements with a single charge under current weight regulations. Additionally, the transition has only begun, with less than 1% of trucks on the road being electric, and almost none servicing long-haul routes. Enhancements in battery energy density and reimagined trucking routes and charging infrastructure may be necessary to enable electric trucks to cover the more challenging range-payload scenarios.
In cement production, fossil fuels are integral both as an ingredient and for generating the required high heat. Replacing fossil fuels would necessitate scaling new technologies and processes or potentially utilizing alternative materials.
Although progress is being made on these challenging issues, ongoing efforts are crucial to continue improving performance, addressing interdependencies, and achieving scale.
Business leaders and policymakers must navigate these physical challenges to facilitate a successful energy transition. For mature technologies, they should consider strategies to capitalize on viable opportunities while addressing potential bottlenecks, such as land requirements for solar and wind assets and the pace of grid expansion to accommodate increased electrification.
For the “demanding dozen,” innovation will be key. Leaders will need to rethink individual technologies and reconfigure overall systems to manage performance gaps. For instance, this might involve reimagining trucking routes or finding alternative materials for cement production.
As these physical challenges are addressed, it is vital to manage the simultaneous operation of the old high-emission energy system and the new low-emission system to ensure a smooth transition.
