The US Election Countdown newsletter offers comprehensive coverage of the key issues surrounding money and politics in the upcoming presidential race.
Kamala Harris currently leads among likely voters in Iowa, a state that Donald Trump previously won by over eight points, according to a significant poll. This poll indicates that female voters in the Midwest might be contributing to a rise in support for the Democratic vice-president.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, released late Saturday, shows Harris leading Trump in Iowa with 47 percent compared to Trump’s 44 percent, just days ahead of the election. Historically considered a battleground state, Iowa has leaned more Republican in recent years. Trump secured a victory over Joe Biden by more than eight points in 2020, and the Cook Political Report has labeled the state as “solid Republican” in this year’s presidential race.
The unexpected poll results could be concerning for the Trump campaign. Harris has primarily concentrated her final campaign efforts on securing the traditionally Democratic states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
The Des Moines Register survey, conducted by esteemed non-partisan pollster J Ann Selzer, is regarded as the benchmark for Iowa polling by political analysts across the spectrum.
Selzer remarked to the newspaper, “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming [Harris] has clearly leapt into a leading position.”
The poll points to a surge in Harris’s popularity, partly due to increased support from independent female voters. Harris holds a 13-point advantage among all independents and a substantial 28-point lead among independent women in Iowa, with 57 percent supporting Harris versus 29 percent for Trump.
Harris, who would become the first female US president if elected, has specifically targeted women voters in her campaign’s final stages. She has highlighted her stance on abortion access and reproductive rights, attributing the overturning of Roe vs Wade to Trump, a decision that removed the national right to an abortion.
Iowa is among more than a dozen Republican-led states enforcing a near-total abortion ban after six weeks of pregnancy, often before many women are aware they are pregnant.
National opinion polls consistently reveal a gender gap among voters, with women reportedly more likely to support Harris, while men tend to favor Trump.
Nevertheless, the Iowa poll remains an exception. According to the Financial Times poll tracker, Harris holds a narrow nationwide lead of about one point over Trump.
Simultaneously, both candidates are statistically tied in the seven key swing states— the “Blue Wall” states, along with North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona—that analysts highlight as crucial for determining the presidential election outcome.
