In 2025, investors find themselves navigating challenging market conditions that are notably tumultuous. The stock market has experienced significant fluctuations, driven by evolving news regarding U.S. tariffs and the policies of the Trump administration.
Bond yields increased throughout the week as foreign investors divested from treasury securities. Notably, last week concluded positively despite initial losses surrounding President Trump’s midweek announcement suspending additional tariffs, which prompted stock purchases. By the end of the week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased by 1.8% on Friday, achieving a 5.7% rise for the week. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.6% on Friday, with a 5% increase for the week. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq saw a weekly growth of 7.3%, with a 2.1% rise on Friday. However, due to previous declines and tariff uncertainties, the indexes remain lower for the year.
Technology stocks led the rally, while energy was the weakest sector within the S&P 500. Crude oil finished the week priced at $61.54 per barrel, marking a 6.2% weekly decline. According to AAA, retail gasoline was priced nationally at $3.189 per gallon on Sunday, a 4.8% increase for the year, down from $3.633 the previous year.
The forthcoming direction of the stock market remains uncertain, heavily influenced by the Trump Administration’s announcements. Market futures suggested a positive start to the week, but expectations dimmed after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s statements on Sunday, indicating that tariff suspensions might not be permanent as new tariffs are being considered.
President Trump reiterated on social media that no one is entirely exempt from tariffs. Discussions on the timing of these potential new tariffs continue. Economist Ray Dalio cautioned that the economy is near recession, and many have adjusted their forecasts following the tumultuous market reactions to the April 2 announcement of tariffs.
However, positive first-quarter earnings forecasts bring some optimism, especially following President Trump’s suspension of most tariffs on mobile phones and semiconductor products from China last Friday. This decision notably benefited companies like Apple and Nvidia. Apple experienced a 5.2% weekly increase, despite being down nearly 21% for the year, and Nvidia saw a 17.6% rise, although it remains down 17.8% in 2025.
Apple, significantly impacted by tariffs due to its substantial manufacturing operations in China, continues to shift production to India and Vietnam. The company’s shift aims to reduce dependency on China, where the majority of its products are manufactured. Nvidia’s gains were attributed to the ability to continue selling its H20 graphics chips to Chinese customers, though its more advanced Blackwell units remain restricted.
Market analysis indicates that the recent rallies have improved relative strength indexes (RSI) from the oversold signal earlier. On Friday, Barchart.com reported that stock trading closed with 39 stocks at 52-week highs and 204 at 52-week lows, with gold-related stocks forming a significant portion of the highs. Gold prices reached $3,255 per troy ounce, reflecting a 23.3% increase this year. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has decreased by 7.7% in 2025 after peaking earlier in the year.
This trading week continues with the release of first-quarter earnings reports. Despite ongoing tariff concerns, the focus will be on financial institutions and several Dow components. Key earnings announcements expected include:
Monday:
- Goldman Sachs: Projected earnings of $12.27 per share with $14.7 billion in revenue, marking a 6% increase in earnings and 3.5% revenue growth from the previous year.
Tuesday:
- Bank of America: Anticipated earnings of 85 cents per share with $26.5 billion in revenue, a 2.4% and 1.9% increase, respectively.
- Citigroup: Expected earnings of $1.90, a 20.3% increase, with revenue at $20.9 billion, up 1%.
- Johnson & Johnson: Projected earnings of $2.67, a decrease of 1.5%, with $22 billion in revenue, up 3%.
Wednesday:
- ASML Holding: Predicted earnings of $5.76, up 70.4%, with $7.8 billion in revenue, a 35% increase.
- Abbott Laboratories: Expected to report earnings of $1.08, up 9.2%, with $10.4 billion in revenue, marking a 4.5% increase.
- Travelers: Forecasted earnings of 81 cents, down 81%, affected by storm and fire damage.
Thursday:
- Taiwan Semiconductor: Projected earnings of $1.82, a 31.9% increase, with revenue of $23.9 billion, up 26.7%.
- Netflix: Expected earnings of $5.73, up 8.5%, with revenue at $10.5 billion, a substantial 121% increase.
- American Express: Anticipated earnings of $3.50, a 5.1% increase, with revenue at $16.9 billion, up 7%.
- Blackstone: Expected earnings of $1.17, a 17.4% increase, with $2.95 billion in revenue, up 15.7%.
- UnitedHealth: Projected earnings of $7.31, a 5.8% increase, with $111.6 billion in revenue, an 11.8% increase.
U.S. stock markets will be closed on Friday, April 18, in observance of Good Friday.
