Why Nevada is a Swing State and What It Takes to Win: Insights from Jon Ralston
Nevada is recognized as a swing state with a complex political landscape. The state currently has two Democratic U.S. senators and a Republican governor. Over the past four presidential elections, Nevada has narrowly favored Democratic candidates. Voter registration between the two major political parties is quite balanced, with a significant number of independents. To explore what it takes to win elections in Nevada, NPR’s A Martinez consulted with Jon Ralston, a seasoned political reporter and founder of The Nevada Independent.
Ralston highlighted that although Nevada has the fewest electoral college votes among the swing states, it still garners considerable attention from presidential campaigns. He noted that the state’s six electoral votes may appear less significant compared to other states, but Nevada’s role should not be underestimated. The state often sees substantial campaign activity, including frequent visits from candidates and their surrogates.
Martinez pointed out that Clark and Washoe counties comprise approximately 90% of Nevada’s population. The remaining 15 counties, which are predominantly Republican, could influence the overall results if the GOP can make inroads in these densely populated areas. Ralston confirmed this strategy, noting that a reduction in the Democratic margin in Clark County could give Republicans a better chance at winning.
Key issues expected to drive voter turnout in Nevada include immigration and abortion. Despite not being a border state, Nevada has a considerable population of undocumented immigrants, making border issues more pertinent. Additionally, an abortion measure on the ballot could mobilize Democratic voters.
The Senate race between Democrat Jacky Rosen and Republican challenger Sam Brown is also a pivotal contest. Rosen, a first-term senator, faces Brown, who campaigns on his military service and war injuries. Despite his efforts, polling indicates Brown is trailing by double digits, leading to concerns about his viability.
Rosen’s decision to skip the Democratic National Convention reflects a tactical approach similar to Senator Catherine Cortez Masto’s in the previous election. By maintaining some distance from the Democratic Party and the Biden administration, Rosen aims to emphasize her bipartisan efforts.
Nevada’s voter composition adds another layer of complexity. Around 40% of its electorate consists of independents, many of whom were automatically registered under a new voter registration law. Determining the political leanings of these independent voters is critical for any statewide campaign, whether for the Senate, presidency, or gubernatorial positions.
In conclusion, winning an election in Nevada requires a nuanced understanding of its diverse electorate and strategic campaigning that addresses both major issues and independent voters’ tendencies. Jon Ralston emphasized the importance of these elements in his conversation with NPR’s A Martinez.
