The remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia, which hit North Carolina over the weekend, could contribute to flooding rains in parts of the Northeast. This comes as two other tropical storms, Philippe and newly-formed Rina, meander east of the Caribbean. A tricky forecast is unfolding in parts of the Acela Corridor and southern New England, especially around New York City, as weather models predict a range of 1 to 8 inches of rainfall between Thursday night and early Saturday. These downpours are tapping into the moisture left behind by Ophelia. Meanwhile, Philippe is approaching the Lesser Antilles, and newer forecasts suggest it may hover to the east as Rina moves around it.
The Atlantic hurricane season is currently experiencing a surge of activity, with the most active period from August 20 to September 28 on record. The season has already seen 18 named storms, marking the third-highest number recorded by this time. Both Tropical Storm Philippe and Ophelia have contributed to this heightened activity, with storms using up a season’s worth of storm fuel. As we approach October, historically known for storm development near the United States, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean become notorious for producing quick-forming storms.
In the Northeast, a stubborn meteorological setup is making for a challenging forecast for cities like Philadelphia, New York City, Hartford, and Albany. A small but intense corridor of downpours is expected on Friday into Friday night, with potential rainfall rates of 2 inches or more per hour. Models suggest that northeast New Jersey to New York City might be the most affected zone, while uncertainty remains unusually high. Additionally, the smaller, more concentrated zone of lower pressures caused by the remnants of Ophelia is leading to heavy downpours and making it difficult to pinpoint the exact locations of flooding.
