The first 2024 presidential debate between Donald Trump and President Biden has shifted the race in Trump’s favor, with Trump now holding a 3-point edge in battleground states and a 2-point edge nationally. The motivation factor plays a significant role, as Democrats are less likely than Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote now. Both candidates have strong support from their respective bases, with over 90% of supporters for each candidate unwilling to consider the other.
Moreover, Trump holds an advantage in the Electoral College, with most Republicans feeling more confident after the debate and independents closely contested. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to commit to voting in 2024, giving Trump an edge with likely voters. When additional candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West are included, Trump’s lead over Mr. Biden widens to four points nationally. Age seems to be a factor for voters, with Mr. Biden leading among those who see an equivalence in ages, while facing challenges among those whose sole concern is his age.
Following the debate, there has been an increase in voters who doubt Mr. Biden’s cognitive health and campaign readiness. Despite this, Mr. Biden has not gained ground on Trump in terms of personal qualities, with Trump leading in competency, toughness, and focus. The battleground states crucial for the Electoral College decision are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The survey conducted by CBS News and YouGov interviewed 2,826 registered voters nationwide between June 28 and July 2, 2024, with a margin of error of ±2.3 points.