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Trump’s Weak Ground Game Could Be His Downfall

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The GOP is increasingly concerned that the Trump campaign’s get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts are severely lacking. Reports indicate that the Trump operation has been late and stingy in deploying field workers and resources in key swing states, particularly when compared to the well-funded Kamala Harris campaign. In Pennsylvania, the Harris campaign has deployed 375 paid staff coordinators, while the Trump team has only managed to field between 50 and 90 staffers.

This disparity is evident across all battleground states. Trump’s campaign relies heavily on right-wing super PACs like Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point Action and Elon Musk’s America PAC, organizations new to the demands of canvassing and door-knocking. Musk’s committee recently dismissed the firm responsible for door-knocking efforts in Nevada and Arizona, just seven weeks before Election Day. Their activities in other swing states like Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin have also been minimal.

Mark Forton, GOP chair in Michigan’s Macombe County, expressed uncertainty about the PACs’ activities, questioning their door-to-door efforts. Nate Wilkowski, the party’s field director for Oakland County, also noted a lack of communication from America PAC about their presence in the area.

The Trump campaign’s strategy has centered on “low-propensity” voters—Republicans leaning towards MAGA but inconsistent in voting. In the Iowa caucuses, this approach resulted in a 51% win for Trump, albeit with lower turnout.

In March, the Trump team replaced the GOP leadership and shifted towards a more tightly controlled ground game. The saved funds were redirected to an “election integrity” initiative, focusing on deploying poll watchers and preparing for legal challenges in contests won by Democrats.

As the election approaches, this strategy appears increasingly risky, especially as Harris’s campaign gains momentum. Trump campaign officials identified Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona as key battlegrounds, but recent trends show other states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia potentially winnable for Democrats. With Harris performing well in these states, the GOP’s lean ground-game strategy is causing alarm. Turning Point Action and America PAC have struggled to match the RNC’s previous GOTV successes.

Even with a narrower focus, the PACs have not reached their $108 million fundraising goal, leading to fewer visible canvassing efforts. Traditional GOP operatives are increasingly vocal about the lack of a solid ground game plan.

Trump’s 2020 performance benefited from the Democrats’ limited physical campaign activity due to Covid-19. Democrats are now ramping up their ground-game efforts in swing states, significantly outspending Republicans. With growing frustration among GOP operatives, there is skepticism that Turning Point Action and America PAC can overcome their current challenges.

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