The global discussion surrounding the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration has raised significant concerns about potential impacts on international trade, including potential price increases on products like the iPhone. An important question that has emerged is whether the Trump administration used artificial intelligence to calculate these tariffs.
The “Reciprocal Tariffs” table from the Trump administration could potentially become a crucial document this decade, despite not yet being definitive. Some interpretations of the table suggest discrepancies and inaccuracies. Contrary to being genuinely reciprocal, the tariffs are based on a seemingly straightforward formula that involves dividing the U.S. trade deficit with a particular country by total imports from that country and then halving the result. This approach appears to neglect existing tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. imports. Despite criticism, the White House has been reported to have provided evidence supporting this calculation approach, as mentioned by finance writer James Surowiecki.
There have been discussions about the list of countries and territories included, some of which are unconventional choices, such as unpopulated areas. This resulted in a surge of online humor, including penguin memes. Tech artist Gordon Chapman suggested on Threads that the tariff table’s organization might be linked to internet top-level domains rather than actual countries, hinting at possible AI involvement in its creation. However, Chapman later clarified that the tariff table likely relies on data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted that economists from the United States Trade Representative had worked on the tariff documents for an extended period. Despite these assurances, some experts have expressed skepticism about the methodology, describing the numbers as baseless. Interestingly, a formula similar to the one used by the White House appears when prompting a language model like ChatGPT to calculate U.S. tariffs simplistically.
The future implications remain uncertain, with the tariff figures potentially serving as a basis for further negotiations. Eric Trump commented on social media that being first in negotiating a trade deal with President Trump could prove advantageous, implying that changes to the tariff figures could follow. If AI indeed played a role in calculating the tariffs, it would raise concerns about the competency of the Trump administration.
Proving the use of AI like ChatGPT in these calculations remains challenging, as such tools caution about their calculations being imperfect and simplified. However, the possibility highlights concerns about relying on AI for such crucial tasks, and there is apprehension about what other responsibilities may be delegated to AI by White House experts.
