As of Tuesday morning, reliable predictors indicated that a developing tropical storm named Helene, located just south of Cuba, was expected to intensify in the upcoming days and likely impact Florida as a hurricane by Thursday.
At this stage, it is common interest to examine various models and predictions showing the possible paths of the storm. However, it is crucial to approach this information with caution due to its often misunderstood nature.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as of 11 a.m. ET, a Hurricane Watch was in effect for multiple regions, including the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, a section of Florida spanning from Englewood to Indian Pass, and the densely populated Tampa Bay area. NOAA’s cone graphic, which provides a fairly reliable prediction of the potential paths the center of the storm could take, illustrates this.
NOAA’s cone graphic should not be misinterpreted as a prediction of an ever-expanding storm impacting the inland United States. Severe wind and storm surge can and likely will occur outside the cone, while some regions within the cone may remain unaffected.
In the event that an individual is directly in the hurricane’s path, evacuation orders will be made clear. It is advisable not to speculate about neighborhood-specific impacts but to follow NOAA’s broader warnings:
“Heavy rainfall is expected to result in locally significant flash flooding across parts of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley from Wednesday through Friday.”
Spaghetti models, similar to NOAA’s cone model, visualize mathematical possibilities. These models show various paths predicted by multiple computer models, resembling strands of spaghetti. It is essential to understand that these paths are speculative and often contradictory. The actual path of the storm will follow only one route, and it is improbable that any single predicted path will be entirely accurate.
A model posted online by Baton Rouge meteorologist Malcolm Byron depicted around 20 potential paths, including one particularly concerning path impacting Tampa Bay directly. Such outliers should be interpreted with caution. While top weather models can be surprisingly accurate, the precise path of weather phenomena remains unpredictable due to numerous contributing natural and man-made factors.
