Joe Biden is anticipated to leave office with the most significant actions on climate change by any US president, yet one major component of his climate agenda has not materialized. While climate-related disasters have displaced millions globally, Biden acknowledged this issue early in his term but has made limited progress in addressing it. As the interconnection between climate change and migration grows stronger, US policies remain unprepared for the challenge.
The lack of legal protections for climate migrants has left a significant gap in US policy, neglecting those fleeing environmental disasters. Democrats have not fully met expectations on border issues, occasionally aligning more with conservative views. In contrast, Republicans are attempting to overhaul the immigration system, eliminate asylum, and weaken environmental regulations. Former President Donald Trump has declared intentions to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris has committed to upholding the climate policies initiated by the Biden administration while maintaining a tough stance on border security.
Ama Francis, climate director at the International Refugee Assistance Project, expressed deep disappointment, noting a trend toward more xenophobic immigration policies across political lines. This has implications for America’s identity and the safety of people seeking refuge amid changing climates and increasingly hostile borders.
The United Nations has warned that current national climate policies could lead to catastrophic global warming. Disasters currently displace an estimated 25 million people yearly, surpassing those displaced by conflict or violence, as reported by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. In 2023, only a quarter of such disasters were due to earthquakes, with most arising from weather-related events. Climate change worsens these issues by intensifying hurricanes, elevating sea levels, and creating conditions conducive to wildfires.
While many people move within their countries following environmental disasters, some events may eventually force international migration, such as storms destroying homes or other prolonged disasters worsening crises. Climate change is often seen as a “threat multiplier” due to its potential to exacerbate conflicts.
Over the past year, the International Refugee Assistance Project and other groups assisting migrants heading to the US surveyed over 3,600 individuals they supported. The findings revealed that 43 percent experienced climate-related disasters, including extreme rainfall, flooding, hurricanes, and extreme heat.
Reports detail experiences like that of a 39-year-old man from Guerrero, Mexico, who relayed the destruction caused by Hurricane Otis, which worsened already challenging personal circumstances. Researchers noted Otis as one of the costliest disasters for Mexico, with studies attributing its strength to human-induced climate change. The environmental challenges in Guerrero, including droughts and storms, impact subsistence farmers, complicating their livelihoods.
Despite these challenges, climate change lacks sufficient acknowledgment in US immigration policy. Temporary Protected Status (TPS) offers limited relief for nationals from countries affected by catastrophes, but it is temporary and not a path to permanent residency. The policy does not extend to new arrivals and remains susceptible to changes by different administrations. Under Biden, certain Trump-era policies were reversed, and some climate-related immigration recommendations were initially pursued but did not reach completion.
While initially promising more compassionate immigration policies, Biden shifted to a stricter border approach, keeping in place policies like Title 42, which allowed rapid expulsions without a hearing. Although Title 42 ended in 2023, new policies emerged penalizing unauthorized border entries while excluding most migrants from asylum eligibility.
Biden expanded TPS significantly, introducing parole programs for certain nationalities, yet these changes remain temporary. Harris has recognized the role of climate change in migration but has not explicitly linked it in her campaign, opting to maintain stringent border measures.
Congressional efforts like the Climate Displaced Persons Act, designed to create visas for climate-induced migrants, have stalled. If Trump returns to the presidency, prospects for expanding asylum criteria are bleak; he previously set refugee admissions to historic lows and considered ceasing admissions altogether.
Ahmed Gaya from the Climate Justice Collaborative predicts severe restrictions on legal rights and immigration under Trump, contrasted by opportunities for advocacy groups to influence Harris to support climate migrants if she is elected. She could extend parole and TPS designations to disaster-affected countries, though such actions would not guarantee climate migrants a permanent US future.
Regardless of leadership in 2025, the legal community is prepared to advocate within existing frameworks to secure asylum where possible. Effective climate action, including emissions reduction by major polluters like the US and supporting vulnerable communities globally, is vital to prevent displacement. Jocelyn Perry from Refugees International emphasizes the importance of supporting people’s right to remain safely in their communities, though for many, this possibility is fading amid rising climate pressures. Francis, reflecting on Biden’s initial climate migration orders and subsequent developments, expressed disappointment.