The article, originally published by Grist, highlights the significant role of four West African countries—Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria—in an industry valued at over $100 billion. These nations, rich in tropical climates, are essential for cacao cultivation. The cacao seeds, once harvested, dried, roasted, and processed, transform into chocolate, a beloved commodity worldwide.
However, the article points out that climate change is increasingly impacting chocolate production. Reports released recently indicate that rising global temperatures are exceeding the optimal range for cacao growth in these key countries, especially during the main harvest seasons. The combustion of oil, coal, and methane is exacerbating temperature increases across the planet’s cocoa belt, consequently increasing chocolate prices.
Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central, which contributed one of the reports, emphasized the threat climate change poses to cacao, one of the world’s most loved foods. She hopes that awareness of the impact of human activity on cocoa will prompt people to reconsider global priorities and actions to mitigate future climate change effects.
Approximately 70 percent of the world’s cacao originates from West Africa, with Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria at the forefront. Other regions like Indonesia and Ecuador with similar climates also contribute to global production. Cacao trees thrive in rainforest conditions characterized by high humidity, abundant rainfall, nitrogen-rich soil, and natural wind protection. Temperatures exceeding 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit lead to water stress, hinder growth, and decrease both the quantity and quality of cacao seeds.
According to the Climate Central report, last year saw an increase in days with temperatures surpassing this threshold in nearly two-thirds of the cacao-producing areas in West Africa, leading to a poor harvest. The research analyzed temperature data and estimated historical conditions without human-induced warming. Between 2015 and 2024, climate change led to an average increase of two to four weeks per year of temperatures unsuitable for cacao growth, mainly during critical growing periods. Additionally, altered rain patterns, droughts, diseases like pod rot, and soil degradation are worsening due to warming.
Despite scientific efforts, the precise impact of climate change on cacao production and pricing remains largely unexplored. Dahl noted the uncertainty surrounding the primary weather events affecting production and the influence of phenomena like El Niño on recent harvests.
Emmanuel Essah-Mensah, a cocoa grower in Ghana, described climate change as a major issue for production in West Africa, citing losing a substantial portion of cocoa plants due to droughts. The consequences of last year’s environmental challenges were reported by Christian Aid, indicating record cocoa prices and increased chocolate costs. Global cocoa production saw a 14 percent decline in the 2023-24 season, with cocoa futures reaching a 47-year high.
Kat Kramer, co-author of the Christian Aid report, underscored the chocolate industry’s vulnerability to climate change, advocating for reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
Cocoa production influences not only chocolate but also cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, significant components of the global market. The U.S. imports around $2.8 billion worth of chocolate annually, more than 10 percent of global supply. Federal Reserve data showed a 144 percent increase in cocoa prices in December, more than doubling compared to the previous year. Economist Alla Semenova from St. Mary’s College of Maryland remarked that production cost hikes usually translate to higher consumer prices.
Despite soaring prices, cacao farmers often do not see increased profits due to rising cultivation costs in a warming climate. Josephine George Francis, a farmer in Liberia, emphasized the need for a new approach focused on sustainability and benefiting farmers. Other confectionery ingredients, such as sugar, are also affected by extreme weather, impacting their availability and cost.
As a consequence, many chocolatiers, including companies like Mars and Hershey, are adapting by reducing cocoa content or introducing cocoa-free products. Analysts predict a decline in demand as chocolate prices continue to rise, even during peak sales periods like Valentine’s Day.
