Bitcoin has shown positive signs by reaching its previous swing high amidst market uncertainty. The daily chart indicates a bullish divergence between the price and the RSI indicator, along with strong buying activity near the $25K support level. This has created momentum for a surge towards reclaiming the 200-day moving average at around $28K. However, there is strong resistance at this level, and another rejection could drive the price back towards $25K.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has found substantial support at $25K and has been consistently surpassing previous highs. However, it is now approaching a crucial resistance zone at the $28K region, marked by its previous major swing high and the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. A consolidation phase is likely in this area, with minor rejections towards the lower boundary of the channel.
On-chain analysis reveals that investor behavior and price movements are intertwined. The 12-18-month UTXO Realized Price indicates that investors who purchased Bitcoin within this timeframe have essentially broken even. Meanwhile, the 6-12-month UTXO Realized Price is lower than the market price, suggesting profitability for this group. The limited influx of Bitcoin from the 12-18-month UTXO cohort into exchanges indicates confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. On the other hand, the 6-12-month UTXO group is actively participating in selling, highlighting differing levels of confidence among investors.