Oil traders have been increasingly buying up futures contracts for crude and fuel, driven by Saudi Arabia and Russia’s announcement of an extended supply cut. This has led to a surge in bullish bets and a ratio of 8:1 bullish to bearish bets on oil and fuels. However, Reuters’ market analyst, John Kemp, warns that this abundance of bullish bets may result in a correction in oil prices. While some analysts anticipate even higher prices, with predictions of Brent reaching $100 or even $150 per barrel, others highlight potential factors that could undermine demand, such as high interest rates and non-OPEC supply growth.
According to a Reuters report, the demand for oil may falter as high interest rates and expanding supply from non-OPEC nations and Russia could undermine the market. Fed chairman Jerome Powell also acknowledged the potential impact of energy prices on inflation and consumer expectations. Despite the surge in oil prices, the demand for oil remains strong, as indicated by Occidental Petroleum’s CEO Vicki Hollub, who stated that the company has no plans to adjust its production despite the increase in prices. However, analysts from Morgan Stanley suggest that sustained high energy prices are needed to have a lasting effect on core prices.
Looking ahead, the balance between pushing prices higher and avoiding excessive price hikes is crucial. OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia, and its partner, Russia, are well aware of this delicate balance. As supply remains constrained and inflation affects spending habits, the demand for oil is expected to decrease. Nonetheless, these conditions are likely to evolve, and the market dynamics may soon change. Ultimately, the future of oil prices will depend on various factors, including global supply and demand, interest rates, and geopolitical events.
