The EUR/USD currency pair has reversed a recent bounce off a 10-week low, lacking momentum in its attempt to recover. Bearish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, as well as sustained trading below the 100-day moving average and a key resistance line, give hope to Euro sellers. However, the convergence of an ascending trend line from mid-March and the 200-day moving average proves to be a tough obstacle for bearish traders.
The pair’s retreat from intraday highs to 1.0860 is attributed to a cautious market mood ahead of key US data releases and the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Traders are particularly interested in US Durable Goods Orders, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity, and weekly Jobless Claims. Despite the pre-event anxiety, the nearly oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) line suggests that bottom-picking of the EUR/USD pair could occur, with a focus on the key support level at 1.0800, which includes the 200-day moving average and a rising trend line.
If the pair falls below 1.0800, additional resistance levels at around 1.0780 and 1.0760 will challenge the bears. On the other hand, buyers of the EUR/USD pair face challenges at the 100-day moving average and a downward-sloping resistance line around 1.0930 and 1.0940. The ultimate defense for sellers lies at the 1.1000 psychological level. If the bulls manage to surpass this level, they will encounter resistance at the June peak of around 1.1015 before targeting the monthly high of 1.1065. Overall, a limited downside is expected for the EUR/USD pair.