The price of gold is experiencing significant weakness as the U.S. dollar rallies and U.S. bond yields increase. Gold is on track to end the week at a 6.5-month low, with December gold futures trading down approximately 4% from the previous week. This marks the worst week for gold since June 2021. Furthermore, gold is also seeing its worst monthly losses since February, with a decline of 3.3% over the past three months. The selloff in gold is attributed to the U.S. central bank’s commitment to maintaining its restrictive monetary policy and not lowering interest rates in the near future.
Analysts suggest that there is potential for gold prices to fall even further and highlight the year’s lows just above $1,800 an ounce as a significant target to watch for. However, the Relative Strength Index indicates that prices are heavily oversold, implying a potential pullback in the future. Some experts also note that gold’s selloff has created a bearish technical signal known as a “death cross,” as the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average. Despite the current decline, others believe that gold prices have put in a higher floor compared to last year and should be seen as a long-term buying opportunity.
Next week, investors can expect volatility in the gold market as important employment data for August will be released. Additionally, they will need to navigate a potential government shutdown, as efforts to fund the government have failed. Moody’s has warned that a government shutdown could negatively impact the nation’s sovereign debt rating. Despite the current selloff in gold, some analysts still anticipate a recession in the U.S. economy next year, which could create a new base for gold prices.
